Australia faces a shortfall of more than 200,000 full-time care workers by 2050 as demand doubles within a generation, with a predicted gap in the workforce emerging earlier than expected as a result of the Covid pandemic.
The findings are included in a care workforce labour market study overseen by the national skills commissioner, Adam Boyton, which the Morrison government had commissioned, but then refused to release after it was completed in September 2021.
The report, released by the minister for skills, Brendan O’Connor, on Monday forecasts a shortfall of about 100,000 care workers across the aged, disability and mental health care sectors by 2027-28, blowing out to 212,000 by 2050.
The workforce required to meet demand over this period is expected to grow to about 531,600, significantly outpacing the forecasted supply of 320,200 full-time workers.
The gap of approximately 211,400 full-time positions is even larger on a headcount basis, with the country on track to be 285,800 workers short by 2050.
“In the absence of significant technological advancements, the challenge of diverting a larger proportion of the working age population to the provision of relatively labour-intensive care and support services for the growing older population will be a challenge shared by many nations,” the report said.
The shortages will be most severe in the aged and disabled care sectors, as well as nursing support and personal care workers, but there will also be a shortage of registered nurses, health and welfare services managers and nurse managers.
The report said that while there is great variability in the wages earned in the caring economy, 95% of the care and support workforce earned below the Australian average.
The largest occupation group – personal care and support workers – had the lowest weekly earnings – $523 below the Australian average wage.
Allied health professionals had the second lowest weekly earnings, $268 below the Australian average.
The only occupation group with weekly earnings higher than the Australian average was health and welfare managers, who earned $754 above the average wage.
An update released by Boyton in August said that in the 12 months since the report was finalised the situation had deteriorated, with a strong labour market increasing the turnover in staff and the Omicron variant leading to absenteeism in the sector.
“The current macro-economic backdrop of a much tighter than expected labour market means that the forecast gaps would be both larger than anticipated; and would emerge even more quickly than noted in the study,” Boyton said.
O’Connor criticised the Morrison government for “locking a report in a drawer”, saying its failure to take action had compounded the problems facing the sector.
“It was kept secret because the Liberal Government wanted to avoid dealing with the growing crisis facing the care workforce, particularly aged care, disability care, and care and support in mental health,” O’Connor said.
“The Government is committed to working to improve attraction, retention and the sustainability of the care workforce to deliver reform the sector so desperately needs.
“In partnership with employers, unions and the sector we will make the care workforce a sector where people want to work, are respected and valued.”
O’Connor said that the government’s support for a wage rise for aged care workers would improve conditions for the care workforce, and said the government’s pledge to establish Jobs and Skills Australia was a “key priority” that would fast-track improved workforce planning, including in the care sector.